#LowIntensityConflict and #JustWarTheory in practice

Analysis: During the #ColdWar, Americans could not understand the saying, "One man's #terrorist is another man's #freedomFighter." [Most Americans, at least, did not understand.] After all the protests of the past year through yesterday [we can probably lump in the past 6 years], we probably can say that most Americans now understand this adage at an emotional level.

Of course, most Americans still cannot empathize with the other side.

Historically, #civilWar's, like all #massMobilization phenomena, operate at a #gestalt #emotional level. #Politicians think they can steer their people, but their #degreesOfFreedom in the social system is very limited. Meaning, the social currents are driving the politicians, too. However, premature precipitating events can disrupt #mobilization, similar to military #raid and #battlefieldInterdiction missions. Thus Opposition elements might try to engineer these precipitating events to disrupt momentum and gain time. The #HarpersFerry raid can be considered as a precipitating event by pro-slavery elements to disrupt abolitionists' mobilization, although that presumes a level of intelligence and organization on the slavery advocates. And notice that Harper's Ferry became a #bloodyShirt rallying cry for abolitionists later on. So precipitating events are more tactical than strategic in the scheme of things.

For those of you concerned about #4GW #moraldimension, #JustWar, and #casusBelli, the #UseOfForce #ForceSpectrum is somewhat clear and also kind of useless, in a political contest. Just War Theory says that War is for #selfDefense and #ResponsibilityToProtect #R2P only. But giving money to #antifascist, for example, makes the donor morally responsible for everything Antifas do, thus the donor becomes a #combatant, too. The donor thus gives up control, losing all #moralAgency but bearing all the moral responsibility. Proper JWT and ethical reasoning thus say, civilians cannot support any political factions without losing the #nonCombatant #LawsOfWar protections. [All political factions end up supporting the extremists in some way, the way human dynamics work. Guerrillas Fish in the Sea, IE.]

This points to a larger truth about Civil Wars: that everyone becomes a combatant eventually. That Civil Wars are #totalWar's. #Pacifism and #neutrality are not tenable.

So the practitioners still need more concrete, usable, thresholds and metrics for Casus Belli. For Americans, the American History offers some guidance: The #DeclarationOfIndependence. The #FoundingFathers went through a lot of work to define actionable thresholds for the War of Independence. In a Civil War, then, the Declaration is a useful model, for civilians to decide when to join the fight.

Summary: #Althouse relates yesterday's #Capitol raid with the Wisconsin Scott Walker #Recall protests. #WhoseHouse #OurHouse.

Capitol Hill: #LowIntensityConflict and #ForceSpectrum in the news

Summary: 1. Some protesters broke into the Capitol and chased away both chambers of the #USCongress. https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1346916158583267334?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1346916158583267334%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Falthouse.blogspot.com%2F (20) Jonathan Chait on Twitter: "I didn't support animal skin guy, but he is our new leader and we should give him a chance to grow in office" / Twitter

2. #ProudBoys being sued, and the putative leader arrested, for allegedly burning #BLM banners and other symbols in Washington DC.

[Analysis Edited to Add:] In a Less Lethal Confrontation, such as a protest, Banners, MAGA hats, etc, serve as #Guidon's of yore, in their symbolic values. Destroying enemy symbols serve to lift own morale and depress enemy's.

Analysis: As I said a few months ago and many times, #Protest is not #Democracy. Protest is always a #lessLethal #useOfForce in a #conflict. As #Clausewitz says, "War is [...] but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, ..."

Democracy, at its core, is government by the "Will of #thePeople," generally using #election's nowadays. A Protest is a political instrument to influence the People, just like all political instruments. Almost always, a Protest contests the political status quo, and thus engenders #CounterProtest's. As a political instrument, Protests, and their sibling #Riot's, mobilizes its members to exercise. In that respect, Protests are a proxy of the political element's military #mobilization capacity, which is an element of its #persuasion power, conscious or not.

Assuming that it was indeed the "#farRight" that #Occupy'd Congress today, and looking at the past few days in DC, it appears that the "Far Right" military capacity might be less than that of the #BLM / #antifascist's from last summer. But arguably the "Far Right" might be more capable of taking over an objective. [Some people allege #lawEnforcement complicity, which gets counted in military capacity.]

There has been much talk of #civilWar over the past year. According to #4GW, the #moralDimension is critical in a civil war. Yet political movements are notoriously bad at maintaining moral #discipline. Therefore, to win on the Moral Dimension (and incidentally to fight #JustWarTheory), #secession #selfDefense is always better than joining #revolutionary's to campaign far from home. [Now, certainly in a Just War, an expeditionary raid may be necessary, but that's not usually how you should start out.]

Administration, AliPay, and American Banking conflicts

Summary: The administration is trying to ban Alipay, QQ wallet, WeChat Pay, etc, from operating in the US.

Analysis: This order is possibly more important than the #TikTok / #WeChat ban, politically and economically.

#AliPay, and maybe others, were in the process of debuting in the USA as a credit-card processor, a la Visa / Mastercard. AliPay is already functioning in Canada and a couple American cities. Were they to start working, they would have seriously pressured #Visa and #Mastercard's processing fees. Meaning that #smallBusiness's wouldn't have to keep paying through the nose for credit card payments.

So did #WallStreet have a say in this new Executive Order? Assessed Likely. And if that were the case, a new administration is likely to continue this ban.

Now the Federal Government had pressured banks against undesirable merchants in #OperationChokePoint, so there is a precedent in politicizing the Financial industry against certain industries. By eliminating foreign competition, it will be easier for the Federal Government to do it again.

DoD Body Composition Standards, Military Appearance, etc.

Summary: The DoD #bodyFat equations overpredict 72% of females and 28% of males. The weight and body #fat standards lead to #eatingDisorders among Marines and females. Authors call for healthier standards.

Analysis: Fat matters.

The military body fat standards are only tangentially about "fitness". At its core, the standards reflect the People's ideals of a military appearance. The American People want a military that looks good, and fit to fight, et al. So the authors' focus on health is misplaced. (Obviously, all Marines care about military appearance, [otherwise they'd Army,] so maybe they just neglected to discuss that.)

Obviously, relaxed body fat standards would dramatically improve retention in the Reserve Components. But most of those soldiers probably prefer a sureshot and maintainable weightloss method instead.

A discussion of a military #bodyComposition standard inevitably has to deal with ideal body images, what "military appearance" means. As students of female uniform history know, female "military appearance" is a complicated subject all its own. So we're not getting anywhere on this before America faces a full reckoning on what the People wants.

"Tattoo": Must Buy!

Summary: COL(ret) Lang, the former DIO for Middle East and DATT for Saudi Arabia, Yemen, et al, has written a fictional biography of an infantry officer who became SF / MI during the Vietnam War, then later a Middle East Foreign Area Officer. The novel is an authentic account of an expert in Defense HUMINT, war amongst the People, Islam, and the Arabs.

Analysis: This year's #MustBuy for all students of intelligence and foreign areas.

Christmas Miracles Through Unbelievers

Summary: An old Christmas story from '80s South Africa witnessing faith.

Analysis: Sometimes God works through the unbelievers.

A reminder that successful #revolutionary movements, such as #ANC's #MassDemocraticMovement / #UnitedDemocraticFront, are often as evil and immoral as their enemies. And that staying neutral during a #civilWar is difficult, let alone holding onto your morals.

Always be careful of any revolutionaries promising systemic corrections. Sadly, with the evils that crony #Capitalism and the responding #Marxism unleashed, almost all revolutionaries (including all #postModernism in and out of power) are acting evil, regardless of intention. The Rittenhouse lessons still apply.