Charles Stross's Saturns Children and Thoughts on AI

Finished Charles Stross's Saturn's Children this weekend.  It was a great read.  The "sex scenes", which obliquely referenced sex but not directly, are a welcome break from the modern fiction these days.  Given that the heroine is a pleasure robot, the sexual references were exactly right, relevant and integral to the story, without detracting from it.  Compared to, say, Tom Clancy, this book is a textbook example of addressing this subject.  One suspects that the extraneous sex scenes in books these days are a plague inflicted by the book agents.

In any event, Saturn's Children paints a thoughtful picture of Artificial Intelligence inheriting the earth.  The classic tragedy of robots bound by the human property laws, in a world where humans are extinct, is haunting.  The constraints of economic reality on robots' actions is a great reminder that, despite the hopeful communism of Star Trek, et al, Resource Limitation is the universal condition no matter the scale of your civilization.

The notion of Artificial Intelligence having to pattern the human brain to achieve symbolic manipulation, is in line with current thinking on AI.  The spontaneous emergence of consciousness is the combination of the hardwired neural complexity and the profusion of environmental stimuli.  To recreate that neural complexity in software form is probably too expensive, compared to implementing that complexity in hardware form.  Moreover, the role of the environmental stimuli is crucial in guiding the development of the neural complexity.  Without the interaction with the environment, a brain is only latent, not realized.  There are some interesting research taking place on this particular AI hypothesis, and we will soon find out if the hypothesis hold any validity.

One note of caution, though, is that current researchers may be underestimating the amount of environmental stimuli required to realize intelligence.  Brains emerged to interact with the environment, not just to observe it.  Without interaction with the data stream, these new AI brains may starve just like the sensory-deprived orphans of post-communism Russia and Romania.  Or worse, the Hikikomori phenomenon in Japan.  One might think that the current projects are somewhat flawed because they are focusing on building the brain itself, rather than the educational apparatus required to realize the intelligence.

If the prototypes succeed, Dr. David Brin's future of AI working alongside man will be close at hand.  That future of augmented intelligence (where a brain can interact with a digital computer) definitely sounds exciting!

Russian Spies, and American Pop Culture

The Russian 11 has been a funny diversion on the daily news this week. Mowscow Center's inability to understand American culture continues to astound, but perhaps this inability is bureaucratically useful. Russia's political elites probably relate more to the mafia's secretiveness than the academia's openness.

Looking at the pictures of Anna Chapman, I was struck by a thought: It will be deliciously ironic, if Ms Chapman wins her trial, and then promptly becomes a media personality. She and her cohorts will get book deals, appear in reality TV competitions, commentate on CNN and Fox News, and maybe even start their own training school/consultancy on the Beltway circuit. This espionage arrest may be the biggest break of their lives, second only to getting assigned to the US. Christopher Mestos may well regret his bail-jumping in Cyprus.

SVR employees will fight for an American assignment, if only they can replicate the celebrity status that the Russian 11 are now enjoying. Being a foreign spy in America is now another path to Hollywood.

PS: I want to clarify that, even if Chapman, et al, got convicted, they may still have a celebrity career.  In fact, as known media personalities and registered foreign agents, they might get more recruiting leads/volunteers from their elevated social status.  So, like the Chinese idiom, this arrest may be the lost horse [apparent mishap] that is a blessing in disguise.  And I added links and labels.

USMC TTP AAR

Tom Ricks is running a series on TTP after-action reviews from a Marine CWO2. At the small unit level, tactical competency is vital, no matter COIN or Fulda Gap. I said earlier that you need to treat those "presence patrols" as recon patrols. The CWO2 reinforces that lesson with his litany of patrolling basics here.

CWO2 also reminds us that, if you slow down, you will find that IED before it finds you. It's a lesson we've known for a long time, yet still have trouble applying. It's true that if you slow down, it takes you more time to cover the area of operations. However, most of the time you can afford to slow down. Hey, you've got all year to patrol your area of ops. What's another two hours gonna cost you?

Intelligence Production

Marc Ambinder noted an interesting video by Chris Rasmussen about Intellipedia. It would certainly improve intelligence quality if the products emphasized the differences within the Intelligence Community rather than the current concensus production process. The differences would call attention to what we do not know, helping us target the follow-on collection efforts. The differences would also promote competitive intelligence.

Of course, the implementation of this reform requires the leadership to commit to good intelligence. As COL(ret) Lang has noted repeatedly, the current intelligence system is not interested in producing good intelligence. The focus on failures of intelligence has produced a bureaucracy with all of its worst traits. Our current intelligence vacuum on Iran has only highlighted the incompetence of the Community. Without commitment from the very top, Rasmussen's idea will become just another footnote in our sad intelligence history.