Honduras Follow-Up

The New York Times has a note on the continuing Honduras drama. It's nice to see that Zelaya is negotiating an exit to Mexico. That indicates Zelaya is giving up on his claim to the presidency. Hopefully when he leaves, that will be the end of the drama. Perhaps he'll continue calling himself, the "Rightful President of Honduras", and be accorded diplomatic respect during his travels. That'll fulfill his dreams of an unending presidency without subjecting the Honduras people to a constitutional crisis.

It is also nice to see that cooler heads prevailed in the US, and that we're recognizing the Honduras government. Depressingly, only Colombia, Panama, Peru, and Costa Rica, of Latin America, have followed suit in recognizing the election. Perhaps this is the rise of opposing camps in Latin America.

I want to go back to my earlier observation on the Brazilian embassy preparations. It appeared that Brazil evacuated most personnel out of its embassy during the siege, so that allowed Zelaya to hold out for a longer period of time. Micheletti may also have allowed humanitarian supplies to go in, therefore rendering the indicator invalid.

Colombia and the South American Arms Race

In a world of non-state conflicts (Iraq, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria), it is refreshing to witness a good old-fashioned state-to-state confrontation. It is much less violent than the up-close-and-personal, messy, insurgency. Today, we see Venezuela kicking it up a notch against its regional rival, Colombia.

Venezuela and Ecuador have funded guerrilla proxies against Colombia. Now that Colombia is emerging from its civil war, it is naturally antagonistic toward its unfriendly neighbors. A FARC-free Colombia will tackle the resource and border disputes it currently ignores. Colombia's battle-hardened army, and its friendly relation with the US, do not comfort Hugo Chavez, either. The strategic rivalry in the area may draw the rest of the continent into the confrontation. An arms race started by Peru and Venezuela will lead to some much needed cash for the American military-industrial complex for the next few years.

Whether this arms race widens will depend on the ABC: Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. Argentina's Kirchner may well take Chavez's side and use the Venezuelan aid money to "recapitalize the military" [aka graft money to constituents.] Where Brazil and Chile will come down is more difficult to read, due to their complex relationship with the area. Venezuela will interpret the outcome of the Brazilian fighter competition as a signal of where Lula is going.