David Brooks at New York Times had an interesting article up today on the "Formerly Middle Class". His main thesis is that, as these formerly middle class people lose their jobs and their middle class symbols, they will become angry, pessimistic, and vulnerable to extremist messages.
This column reminded me of Today's ISMS: Socialism, Capitalism, Fascism, Communism, and Libertarianism by Ebenstein. In it, Ebenstein said of Fascism that its footsoldiers are of the Lower Middle Class, because they have worked the hardest to move themselves out of the lower class. So they embrace the social conventions and traditions. At the same time, because they are lower on the economic scale, they are more vulnerable to losing their status. Therefore they are more militant against economic redistribution schemes. Fascism exploits their vulnerabilities against Communism, even though both are more similar than different in practice.
With this in mind, we can look at a post-Great-Recession World 10 years from now: In China, India, Brazil, and Russia, (and East Europe), we can expect to see a rise in Nationalistic Fascist groups in their respective countries. They will militate against their traditional enemies: Japan/Korea, Pakistan, Germany/Europe, Paraguay(?), et al. And the United States will be the Public Enemy # Uno in many of those places as well.
As the "Emerging Markets" slide back into 3rd World-ness, we can also expect a re-surgence in Communist philosophies. Both Communism and Fascism are products of the turbulent economic times of the last turn of the century. It seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
I may have to order that nuclear fall-out shelter I've been thinking about. With a possibly Islamic-ruled Pakistan and Nationalistic Fascist India facing each other, the Doomsday Clock is edging toward armageddon.
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8 comments:
"Nationalistic Fascist India facing each other"
do you re-read what you write after you do so ?
fascism in India ? A nation that has never attacked another country in its history will overnight become a fascist country ?
I understand your overt jingiosm, but viewing other countries with western lenses would only skew your viewpoint.
this one design for all idea doesn't work in the real world.
I am extending the theory to make an argument.
Theory: In economically uncertain times, the newly lower-middle class will trend Fascistic against communist tendencies.
Fact: In India and China, there are a lot of newly lower-middle class people, as well as newly middle class.
Fact: It is an economically uncertain time, with many people sliding lower in economic class.
Prediction: There will be a rise in Fascistic parties/factions in India and China. Given that Fascistic parties usually are nationalist as well, I said, "Nationalistic Fascist India".
I understand that India has a strong history of Socialism/Communism politics. However, nothing is stopping the socialist/communist Indian parties from taking on populist Fascist/nationalist themes. In fact, the Nazi party shared some of the German communist party's platforms.
Right now, Kashmir is the powderkeg, the Balkans of today. If one terrorist/nationalist group there takes action against another, they can easily drag India and Pakistan into another war. Among all nuclear powers, India/Pakistan is the most volatile pairing today.
India and Pakistan have gone to war in the past over Kashmir. India may not have "invaded" Pakistan, but in a crisis situation with imperfect information and multiple independent non-state actors, it will be too easy for India to initiate retaliatory attacks. Same goes for Pakistan. From there goes the nuclear powderkeg.
And thanks for reading and commenting!
at the risk of repeating myself, the problem lies with supplanting western standards where they don't apply.
I am questioning
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Prediction: There will be a rise in Fascistic parties/factions in India and China. Given that Fascistic parties usually are nationalist as well, I said, "Nationalistic Fascist India".
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based on what ? incidents in europe ? even blood brothers don't act to same stimuli in the same way and you expect a country that is eons away from western psychology to react in the same way ? it doesn't happen that way.
let me present a 'fact' to you. in ancient india all men were suppose to renounce earthly life once they crossed 75 years of age. and most of them did, including the wealthy and the king.
should I take this fact and claim that the same must have happened in rome or greece ?
you see the fallacy in this kind of logic ?
the countries you are talking about are literally worlds apart from what you are accustomed to, you should know a little about them before you theorise.
ask me if you need any info.
regards.
Anon,
I think what we are disagreeing here may be related to the connotations we are using. You may have a meaning for the word "Fascistic" different from mine.
How do you think the Indian society will react to the Great Recession underway? What kind of parties and policies will get more votes? Will the ethnic/religious interest groups get more prominent, or suppressed, or status quo? Will the gov't extend welfare/economic safety net to all, or to a few? Will people protest the current quota system/affirmative action in giving government jobs to the minority and Dalits? Or am I completely wrong and other dynamics are at play here?
What I mean by "Fascism" is: Enforcement of social hierarchy through legal or cultural means(registration of occupation and guild/tradecraft membership), Suppression of Communist activities/parties through banning protests and unauthorized mass gathering and banning labor unions, Official sanction and promotion of nationalist symbols/myths, and in its final manifestation, Mobilization of the economy for total war. The enforcement of these traits may come from official violence (police & paramilitary) or unofficial violence (brown shirts & strike breakers). External aggression is not necessary, but usually happens due to nationalist fervor.
At its root, Fascism is about controlling the proletariat and preserving the social hierarchy/class/caste. The lower class cannot be allowed to run amok because they're ignorant, etc.
In terms of "Western Culture", Japan certainly had its unique brand of Fascism during the early 20th Century. It may have helped that the Japanese people were already a highly conformist, homogeneous people. The social hierarchy was rigidly and socially, but not legally, enforced. The politicians routinely employed gangs to assasinate political enemies and enforce party discipline. The communist party existed, but was never able to make significant inroads into the proletariat.
And today, you can say that the Chinese Communist Party is almost Fascist. Nationalist symbols, check. Suppression of union activities, check. Trade/Guild membership registration, kinda check (gov't ID/papers). Violence, check. Social hierarchy? Well, the Party always gets its cut. The CCP is evolving toward a Chinese Fascism.
Communist and Fascist governments are strikingly similar in practice, and that was a major theme in the book, Today's ISMs. India the Federal Government has worked very hard to protect and promote the rights/fortune of the Dalits and the ethnic minorities, while India the Society hasn't done much. In the Recession, will the federal government stay the course?
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I think what we are disagreeing here may be related to the connotations we are using. You may have a meaning for the word "Fascistic" different from mine.
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labels matter little to me, content does. FYI, I don't differentiate between communist and fascist states, both legitimize authoritarian praetorian states in the garb of ideology.
and because of that these states transform into even more dangerous entities than run of the mill military states like pakistan which has much lower limits placed on its efficiency as a war-machine.
that the two see each other as enemies is also nothing to be surprised about, they are competing philosophies after all !
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How do you think the Indian society will react to the Great Recession underway?
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firstly, recession will not affect India as much as it does other countries. before you nod you head in disbelief consider the following facts
i)unlike china, india's economy is primarily internal consumption driven.
that will decrease but not by much.
ii)most of our investments comes from domestic savings, this will only go up with the stock market crash.as it is we have a very strong culture of saving.
of course the export oriented sectors would be hardest hit with attendant job losses. this would also reduce forex inflow which would be mitigated to some extent by the low oil price.
but again there would be opportunities for nimble footed people to find global businesses that would want to keep costs low !
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What kind of parties and policies will get more votes? Will the ethnic/religious interest groups get more prominent, or suppressed, or status quo?
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I feel the main issues for this general election are economic performance and internal security, current govt has failed miserably on both counts. anti-incumbency means the right wing parties will come to power.
as for the rest, status-quo.
India doesn't change in a fortnight whether for good or for bad.
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Will the gov't extend welfare/economic safety net to all, or to a few?
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currently only people below poverty line are included in the nationwide distribution system. I don't see any rationale to extend the net to include other income groups.
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Will people protest the current quota system/affirmative action in giving government jobs to the minority and Dalits? Or am I completely wrong and other dynamics are at play here?
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people have already protested all they could and it has died down and AFAIK it will not start over again.
affirmative action or what goes by that name is a scheme that only benefits the well-off section of the backward class, the real poor does not benefit from it.
on the ground it is nothing but a political gimmick to secure a votebank.
the indian populace doesn't begrudge the backward classes any benefit it gets, the protests were solely against the politically motivated (and ineffective) measures taken in the name of affirmative action.
another thing you might consider is the fact that due to the misguided policies of the first and second generation of our leaders (the same ones who gave us a socialist/communist govt !) we lived with virtual recession for the first 40 years of our independent existence !
indians know how to survive hardships, this is one of the factors behind the success of indian diaspora all over the world.
they are not going to over-react in the sense you feel will happen.
I understand what you mean by fascism, all I am saying is indian society does not and will not react in that way.
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At its root, Fascism is about controlling the proletariat and preserving the social hierarchy/class/caste. The lower class cannot be allowed to run amok because they're ignorant, etc.
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this ignores the fact that democracy is very much a part of our psyche. even somebody as powerful and influential as indira gandhi couldn't convince the poor and uneducated otherwise when she suspended some aspects of it, although there were widespread sops and measures of poverty alleviation
thinking that the poor won't care about philosophical things like freedom.
well, they did ! they chose freedom over material gains and modern indian democracy came of age that day when IG lost the polls !
you may think that democracy too is a western construct and yes, in its current form it is so.
however it won't have survived in india unless the people too thought of it as a valuable thing to have.
and in that they have only reflected india's long tradition of democratic thought from ancient times.
(as an aside, I'm sure you think of athens as the world's first democracy, it is not so ! :D
check here for instance :
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/History_of_democracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_democracy#Pre-historic_origins
there are more interesting facts on
this topic, I'll furnish them if you are interested.)
this is what I mean that you
shouldn't ignore a nation's psyche
in trying to predict its course.
consider another example, do you think the soviet union could have developed without the czarist regime before it ? they had virtually identical govt functioning style !
regards.
what happened Mr Mohist, AWOL for a long time ?
did you see how India reacted to this barbaric act by pakistan ?
do you still think could be fascist ?
The Indian responses so far are heartening. Let us hope that India will find the right balance between internal security and personal freedom.
Meant to comment on this before, but could not keep up with events and life at the same time.
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