I think Russia's present security preoccupations are NATO expansion towards
Russia's Near Abroad. Islam is a very minor threat to Russia, and entire
point of the SCO is to manage Sino-Russian interests without butting heads.
I responded:
Yes, Russians are pre-occupied with NATO expansion. However, as Defense
Secretary Gates has said, there's the war you're preparing for, and there's the
war that you're actually fighting.Yes, NATO is expanding. However, that does not
pose a security threat, per se, to Russia. Rather, it is more over spheres of
influence, prestige, and control.In addition, NATO expansion is driven, in large part, by former Warsaw
countries such as Poland and Czech. If you think about intentions, these Central
European countries are more hostile toward Russia than, say, England and France
are. England and France may object to Russian internal politics on humanitarian
grounds, but that could change if Russia becomes more Westernized. Poles and
Czechs, on the other hand, will forever hold Russians in suspicion.So geostrategically, England and France may be rekindling their strategic
relationship with Russia. Here I am thinking on historical timescales of
decades. Historians in the 22nd Century may well mark this Mistral order as the
start of the trend.Ref SCO and China: For all the pomp and circumstance surrounding the SCO,
Russia is deeply worried about China due to the demographics. With the sporadic
anti-Chinese riots and actions in Moscow, and the de-facto Chinese colonization
of Russian Far East, China is Russia's biggest security risk at this moment.As Russia is fighting its Muslim minorities right now, Islamic insurgency is
Russia's biggest security task. The war you're fighting today, like I said.
Posts
2 comments:
Hello, it's that anon again. Great blog you have here but I'm going to argue against a few more of your points.
>Poles and Czechs, on the other hand, will forever hold Russians in suspicion.
Precisely why Russia and NATO will never get along as long as those 2 remain a thorn between us.
Promises were made to the fUSSR that NATO wouldn't expand. Promises were broken.
> Historians in the 22nd Century may well mark this Mistral order as the start of the trend.
hmmph. The point when the collapse of much of the Russian weapon manufacturing industry turned Russia from an arms exporter to an arms importer.
>Russia is fighting its Muslim minorities
Maybe some Russian can correct me but AFAIK, Russia isn't meaningfully threatened by Islam at all. Sure there was the Chechnya thing a way back but the Russians already very efficiently resolved that with a little help from massed artillery.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya
I think it's also worth adding that most Muslim Chechen fighters now actually fight FOR Russia not against. Those Chechen Mercenary brigades were also saw action against Georgian forces in the recent conflict in South Ossetia, which brings to mind what you said about "the war that you're actually fighting". I think you underestimate the extent in which Russia and NATO are wrestling over Ukraine and Georgia. There is a genuine possibility that fighting will flare up again. It certainly seems to be the most obvious use for the Mistral.
>Russia is deeply worried about China due to the demographics.
Even with a brutal one child policy and a rapidly ageing population?
>With the sporadic anti-Chinese riots and actions in Moscow,
I doubt that Moscow condones race riots. I seriously doubt that a multi-ethnic empire like Russia will allow policy to be dictated by a bunch of neo-nazi skinheads. Nor do I think that liberal European capitals will be impressed by a Moscow overture along the lines of "Us White People need to stick together to keep away those nasty Yellows who are out breeding us".
>and the de-facto Chinese colonization of Russian Far East,
Grossly overstated. I suspect they never distinguish between Chinese and Koreans or the indigenous native Asian groups like Siberians. In any case I don't believe that Moscow or liberal European capitals will sanction ethnic cleansing; and joining NATO won't stop illegal immigration into Russia any more than it stops illegal immigration into "Eurabia" or America.
>China is Russia's biggest security risk at this moment.
This is really absurd from a cost benefit angle. Despite her current predicament, Russia is still a formidable NUCLEAR power. It's MUCH MUCH cheaper for a cash rich China to buy oil gas or anything they want from NUCLEAR armed Russia than to try to take it.
A lot of these "Chinese taking over Russian FE" as well as the "Chinese taking over Africa" stories amounts to the lowest form of thinly disguised Yellow journalism. Take with caution.
The Russian pre-occupation over China may be irrational, but it is there. I am positing that their concern over China is qualitatively different from their concern over NATO expansion.
As a demonstration of Russian sino-phobia, witness their recent closure of the flea market right outside Moscow, as reported here http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/world/europe/28moscow.html
Now, whether Western Europe will share Russian concerns over China, that's a different question. England's relationship with India may shade its Chinese perceptions in the future. Similarly, we have to wait and see how Vietnam and France develop their relationship, which will affect France-China.
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